Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 194.441344 236.100990 287.713826 357.526370 451.353387 5.759196e+02 7.588532e+02
2025-05-04 149.792374 198.858332 267.673240 375.286018 547.560660 8.292208e+02 1.366375e+03
2025-05-11 123.732833 174.378972 251.748791 386.257861 633.132352 1.114935e+03 2.293735e+03
2025-05-18 105.403894 155.199644 236.297161 389.449757 704.080643 1.422431e+03 3.670956e+03
2025-05-25 90.820665 138.205748 219.245748 382.632079 751.040487 1.716716e+03 5.564145e+03
2025-06-01 79.253218 123.786863 202.994399 371.514686 782.944284 2.004640e+03 8.205567e+03
2025-06-08 70.083518 111.848691 188.605780 359.597689 807.401863 2.300437e+03 1.203304e+04
2025-06-15 67.575632 111.227392 195.354586 396.032675 981.757865 3.345825e+03 2.830773e+04
2025-06-22 62.355382 104.736606 189.034938 399.720531 1063.803754 4.164252e+03 5.537693e+04
2025-06-29 58.724932 100.721824 187.047740 413.773479 1191.552704 5.502073e+03 1.434180e+05
2025-07-06 54.270070 94.477875 179.103253 409.590297 1252.559729 6.618466e+03 3.524547e+05
2025-07-13 53.156273 94.780314 185.811871 449.142662 1524.362268 1.039227e+04 5.156300e+06
2025-07-20 51.414953 93.730558 189.662195 483.725436 1825.458693 1.666308e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 49.319697 91.657317 190.714100 510.589793 2130.837328 2.663403e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 46.939506 88.640616 188.825453 527.116755 2408.443551 4.153916e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 44.336623 84.801508 184.109234 531.929209 2626.044795 6.185871e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 41.465128 80.029692 176.120492 521.679867 2728.689492 8.335414e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 38.675639 75.170366 167.183148 505.016330 2767.518325 1.063885e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 36.134261 70.653159 158.571150 487.226948 2782.432122 1.334534e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 36.006549 71.835254 166.273806 541.852053 3589.766428 4.622036e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 34.459846 69.420928 163.124470 547.419621 3920.070394 1.014850e+06 NaN
2025-09-21 33.422238 68.153289 163.215789 568.698815 4516.772433 4.289551e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 31.810521 65.300230 158.032766 562.354134 4742.863828 1.396987e+07 NaN